Marked rise in palliative care predicted

BMC Medicine (2017) DOI:10.1186/s12916-017-0860-2

About 75% of people approaching their end of life benefit from palliative care. Currently, about 375 000 people receive palliative care a year. However, according to a study from King’s College London, demographic changes mean that between 25% and 47% more people may need palliative care by 2040 in England and Wales. The authors say that their estimates of the increase in palliative care need ‘is much greater than previously expected’.

The authors estimated that mortality in England and Wales will rise by 25.4% annually by 2040 compared to 2014. If the proportion (based on age and sex) who need palliative care remains the same as in 2014,
the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0%, equivalent to 93,907 extra people, by 2040. The authors estimate that dementia and cancer will be the main drivers of increased need.